Research Area: Food security
To validate his hypothesis that water stress is the main culprit decreasing corn and soybean production in the Midwest, and to help differentiate the different mechanisms impacting crop yields at higher temperatures, Dr. Lobell’s research team used a model known as an Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). High temperatures had a strong negative effect on corn yield response in the United States, in agreement with the data, but the predominant effect of heat in the model was via increased water stress.