Biofuel development contributes most effectively to rural income growth when you can have vertical integration. People all along the value chain have to be making money. The emerging connections between agriculture and energy markets are complex, but can be advantageous if handled carefully - Siwa Msangi This project seeks to quantify how different scenarios of expanded biofuels production in rich and poor countries will affect global and regional food prices, farmer incomes, food consumption of the poor, and climate.
The project involves both a global modeling effort, and linking this work with country modeling in three case-study countries (India, Mozambique, Senegal). In combination, linking global and regional models will make a more detailed assessment of the opportunities and pitfalls associated with an array of possible biofuels development scenarios (e.g. using different crops for biofuels production, using marginal land vs highly productive land, etc). We suspect the work will represent the first systematic, detailed effort to address the effects of biofuels expansion on welfare in poor countries, and the first available analytic tool for assessing possible biofuels investments in individual developing countries. Project collaborators include the International Food Policy Research Institute, the Center on Chinese Agricultural Policy, and the University of Nebraska.